On the Taliban.

For the last 30 or so years, the Taliban have been a force in the Middle East.  Formed as a backlash against the warlord-ruled clans and tribes of 1970s Afghanistan, the Taliban have morphed into possibly the most powerful non-governmental Islamist group (they did control the government of Afghanistan from 1996-2001, but have not had any state power since they were overthrown by the U.S.-led Northern Alliance).

The Taliban have gone from being the saviors of the region to being the destroyers of peace in the Middle East.  So who are they really?

WHAT’S GOING ON?

Today marks the beginning of a mini-summit between the U.S., Afghanistan, and Pakistan.  The presidents and staffs of all three countries will meet for the next few days in order to discuss and solve the problem of the Taliban’s recent resurgence, especially in Pakistan, where the militant group has approached as closely as 60 miles to the capital of the nuclear-equipped country.

Based on the Taliban’s anti-American stance of late, which included stubbornly defending and hiding our friend Osama bin Laden in the years since September 11, the prospect of a Taliban Pakistani government is fairly frightening.  So how did this get so bad?

WHY DO WE CARE?

Because America caused it.  All of it.  The Taliban gained power and renown only after the U.S. funded their fight with the Soviet Union in the early ‘80s, providing weapons and money for military training of Talibani soldiers, including Osama bin Laden.  Later, the U.S. injected their money into the Pakistani military, in hopes of having a strong ally in the region, but this too backfired as it led to military coup after military coup in the country, and the democracy in place now is unstable at best.

What we’re seeing now is a U.S.-backed group fighting another U.S.-backed group over fragile territory in a fragile region.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR THE FUTURE?

Hopefully the American government now can learn from the mistakes of the past, and not simply throw money at problems until they go away.  I hope it’s clear now that it’s not safe to simply back one side of a conflict – the other side never goes away.  We see this again and again – in Israel/Palestine, North Korea/South Korea, and even Latin America.  Instead, we should focus on funding peace and stability, bringing both sides to a table in order to get to the heart of the conflict.

If they haven’t learned these lessons, and insist on forging peace only in the fires of war, we’re doomed to repeat the cycle yet again.  Only this time, a nuclear power is at stake.

On Mr. bin Laden

If there’s one man people in the West associate with Islam, it’s Osama bin Laden.  A 52-year-old son of the 10^th wife of a wealthy Saudi businessman, bin Laden could have turned into one of the world’s richest men, or perhaps one of the foremost clerics of his religion.  But 22-year-old Osama, unfortunately, took the road less traveled, and joined Afghan militants in their fight against the Soviet Union, eventually staying there and becoming the face of Al Qaeda.

WHAT’S GOING ON?

There’s news out today that Pakistan’s President Asif Ali Zardari has announced that the U.S. and Pakistan have been unable to locate Osama bin Laden, that “[The CIA] obviously feel that he does not exist anymore but that’s not confirmed, we can’t confirm that.”  Doesn’t exist anymore?  Does that mean that Osama bin Laden might be dead???

WHY DO WE CARE?

If it’s true, if bin Laden truly “does not exist anymore,” then what?  I mean, bin Laden attacked us, and we attacked back, all over the world.  But didn’t WWII end (basically) when Hitler killed himself?  Doesn’t that mean this “war on terrorism” should be over now?

Sadly, not at all, no matter how we’re measuring success in this fight.  If we entered this war as a way to show our strength and get back at our September 11 attackers, then we haven’t yet done that – leaving bin Laden to die of (presumed) natural causes doesn’t exactly show our enemies that we have the power and the ability to get to anyone, anytime.  WE didn’t get him, Father time did.

On the other hand, if we entered the war on terrorism to eradicate terrorism from the face of the planet, we’ve basically gotten absolutely nowhere.  Our fight in Iraq has made terrorist networks bigger and harder to trace.  Our fight in Afghanistan has somehow enabled a resurgent Taliban (the bad guys in the very beginning, the “enablers” of bin Laden) to regain their footing and start making plays for big parts of Afghanistan and Pakistan.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR THE FUTURE?

I expect Zardari’s announcement was not one of actual futility – Pakistan’s President admitting ignorance to international media doesn’t ring true to me.  Instead, I suspect it was a simple play of showing Al Qaeda exactly what they want to hear, because there’s nothing they’d like more now than to prove us wrong.  I definitely foresee them filming a new video either of bin Laden himself, or of bin Laden’s successor and his call to arms.  Either way, Al Qaeda gets to feel like they have the upper hand, when they’re actually simply giving us more data, more chatter over the terrorist networks we listen in on.  Besides, cocky adversaries are the most likely to make mistakes.

Let’s see what happens here...